Futures contract entry prices are negotiated on the Cboe & CME exchanges themselves, but the “real” price at settlement is determined by the spot exchanges. The first batch of CME bitcoin futures settled on Jan 26. The first batch of Cboe bitcoin futures settled on Jan 17. the “real” price at the time of settlement. The Cboe and the CME futures contracts are cash-settled, so what is traded in practice is the price difference between what one entered the contract at vs. A futures contract is a contract to trade a certain thing for a certain price at a certain time. The CME and Cboe are traditional financial marketplaces where institutional traders (“Wall Street”) have been able trade bitcoin futures contracts since December. This week, either Wall Street drove spot exchanges prices downwards in an act of manipulation, or it was the traders who thought Wall Street would do that did.
Many times, they create the price movement they are afraid of, like a Harry Potter boggart. What’s important is that regardless if they’re correct or not, these theories become significant drivers in the bitcoin price. The Willy bot really did exist, and Chinese volumes dropped 90% after zero fee trading was banned. I’m not saying that these theories aren’t sometimes correct. #cryptocurrency #bitcoin #futures #therearenoanswers /w0DWPmhQDb
The price of $BTC over the last ten days, with the CBoE and CME futures settlement date/times highlighted. The latest conspiracy: Wall Street shorting futures and manipulating spot prices near settlement. They see through it all the Mt.Gox “Willy bot” bubble, the Chinese wash trading, the Chinese government insider trading, the stop-hunting, Spoofy, Tether & Jamie Dimon trying to buy up cheap bitcoin. A common trait I see in bitcoin traders is that they have theories for everything.
Or at least you must think you are really smart. If you are a bitcoin trader (rather than just a hodler) you must be really smart. In order to be a bitcoiner, you must fundamentally believe that a bunch of software engineers can create a better form of money than economists, governments and central banks. But as long as you’re trading, we’ve established that you’re at least more arrogant than the other half of the market. In order to trade rather than hodl, you must fundamentally believe you’re smarter, more disciplined or better informed than the other half of the market. Trading is arrogant, be it on Wall Street or across crypto exchanges.
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